Cycles. Each sixty years

The Six-ten years' cycle popularised by Ravi Batra in ' of Depression 1990 ', is one of the oldest mundannyh the cycles, known to the person. Not to mention astrological correlation, 60 years this time, which is required to experience to get out of fashion. The adult person who has passed through serious economic ailments, will be 80 years old or it any more will not be in live up the time of the following disorder. If it occupied imperious position or actively joined in this disorder, we will tell at 40-year-old age the knowledge which it has got on the errors made it and its contemporaries, will be lost in the market within 30 years.

If John Smith has sold the house and has put up all money in a securities market in September, 1929, during peak it not only has lost all actives, but also has lost the house. From this it has acquired two valuable lessons:

1. That rises, should fall.

2. Do not risk your house on ' a winning game '.

Next two years it should receive some more new lessons: do not trust banks; unique money which at you are, it is money in your hands; always accept safety measures and provide the future; be so are independent economically as soon as can; that goes badly, can go even worse.

Assuming that John has found in due course work or has come back to old work when the economy was restored, it and all its generation of mature adults will be extremely cautious, even are irrationally cautious concerning reliability of financial practice. The disaster period always gives rise to mass psychology of financial conservatism. As the result, economy will creep upwards, reliably and truly.

In 30 years after primary disaster 40-year-old people it is completely left making decisions of a post in economy. Their children who have had hard time, and those who were young then, have strong memoirs on difficulties or on three times told stories.

They also have strong memoirs on revival and lifting. They expect that it will last eternally. It not so. The market is simply stabilised during the following of 20 years and operates as should. It trades in a predicted range.

In due course stability starts to look as stagnation. Those who were financially conservative and moderately experimented during this stable 20-year-old period, are perceived as old-fashioned odd fellows who were incapable to result the others during new and wonderful time of prosperity. The new generation of heads and businessmen comes on the financial markets and to banks. They were born and have grown during prospering time of lifting. They never worried difficulties or did not sigh over stories about difficulties which probably could hear from the grandfathers. They burn with the desire to show to the world something new how to gain money. The average generation leaving from affairs or feeling with losers, is ready to give to them to make attempt.

The bank operations, the corporate policy conducted by the finance, absorption and merges and general game on actions will be Result of first half of last 20-year-old cycle. To gain money, instead of manufacture or work, becomes the purpose. Certainly, crash comes nearer, as the knowledge received from the previous monetary hysteria and crash, any more does not fill minds of initiators of it.

If you look at the schedule of an industrial index of Dow-Johns will see repetitions of this cycle. With 1880 on 1900 Dow slowly and steadily dews. With 1900 on 1920 Dow could not pass for 100. With 1920 on 1929 Dow became unrestrained. With 1930 on 1940 he could not recover from crash. With 1940 on I960 Dow steadily grew. With 1960 on 1980 it could not pass for 1000. With 1980 on 1990 it has directed up. We do the same errors as old experience dies within 60 years.

Dow not the unique indicator of this cycle. The oil and silver schedules presented earlier, find out the same style. People forget history. People repeat history.

We trust only to our own history. We think that the such cannot occur to us. The basic astrological components of a 60-year-old cycle are Saturn and Jupiter. Our old friends come back again, not only defining wide razmahi economic, social and political activity, but also small ' motes ' too. They do not do it completely, eclipses, as well as movements in a solar field here are got involved. But if Jupiter and Saturn do not participate, movements will be or insignificant for economy as whole, or time. Events in the share market of 1987 were the market phenomenon, instead of economic event. It was like crash of the market of 1869. Crash of the market of 1929 had economic value. Our economically important updatings will be dominating in 1990th years.

Before being engaged in heavenly mechanics of a 60-year-old cycle, let's study some other cycles which have been established irrespective of an astrology.

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