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In 1926 Kondratyev has written about a cycle making about 52 years which he observed in economy of the United States. Kondratyev's wave is often stretched somewhere from 50 till 60 years depending on the thesis and supported projects. Richard Zambel in work ' the Hyperinflation or depression? ' (Zambell, Richard G., Hyperinflation or Depression?, Weiss Research, Inc., West Palm Beach, Florida, 1984, pp. 52-64) has depicted 10-year-old segments of a wave of Kondratyev thus:
Without considering the fact that it covers 15 years in some ' decades ', we can tell with confidence that a 50-year-old cycle (by the way, noted majja) this schedule of the saved up planetary patterns which ' strike ' from time to time time in 50 years. It also can be reflexion of cycles of Venus majja, not considered in the given work.
Repeating cycles, similarly Jupiter-uranium, Jupiter-Neptune and Jupiter-Pluton, occur approximately to 13-year-old intervals that can explain a cycle from 50 till 52 years. However, a 50-year-old cycle as it was described, it more possibly function of the 60-year-old period. Kondratyev theorised about lifting about 20 years and about recession about 30 years, with 10 years out of recession of the basic depression or crisis. As we will see further, a cycle of a mutation more opisatelen for Kondratyev's wave, than attempt him or its supporters. A 60-year-old cycle the most predicted and exact from all. Really, it connects many elements of shorter periods.
If we use descriptions of Zambelja, but we name 1930th years sixth decade, we will see the suitable description of decades, since:
The First. 1940th years - restoration from depression.
The Second: 1950th years - Strong growth. Because of the Second World War devastation America becomes the supplier of all world. The Korean war.
The Third: 1960th years - the creation Program ' a great society ' Johnson's administrations, the big riches in the country. The Vietnamese war.
The Fourth: 1970th years - Stagnation. Oil crisis and ' dim ' Dow.
Here the model of Zambelja suffers failure. Both 1920, and 1980th years reflect the real nature of the fifth decade, years of rapid growth and scandals. They, instead of the stagnation period, precede depression.
The Fifth: there Should be a growth and gamble which the Sixth follows: Depression.
Our history it is conclusive divides into six, instead of on five, 10-year-old periods. A basis of a 60-year-old cycle is our old friend, a mutation cycle, plus certain cyclic repetitions which occur in it.
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